Colorado Is Retiring Its Own Risk Assessment Tool. Nobody Told The People It Already Scored.

By Justin Jay Kirscht | August 25, 2026 Originally published on 2e Decoded. Read the full documented version at 2e Decoded on Substack.

Colorado has been scoring people in its domestic violence system with a tool called DVRNA since 2010.

That score determined your treatment level. Your supervision intensity. Whether you were classified as low, moderate, or high risk. It followed you into every courtroom, every case review, every custody proceeding.

Now Colorado is replacing it.

The new tool is called CASCADE — the Colorado Assessment Scale for Coercion and Abuse Desistance. Training started in March 2026. The mandatory statewide implementation deadline is August 31, 2027. The transition is happening right now.

Here is what is not happening: nobody is going back to re-evaluate the people DVRNA already scored.

What Was Wrong With The Old Tool

Colorado's own researchers said it.

A 2023 validation study conducted by the Colorado Division of Criminal Justice found that DVRNA's predictive accuracy scored an AUC of 0.63 — what researchers classify as "small to moderate predictive utility." In plain terms: the tool Colorado used to score thousands of people in its system was, by its own measurement, marginally better than a coin flip at predicting what it was designed to predict.

The same study found the tool was not adequately validated for women, LGBTQ+ individuals, or across racial and ethnic identities.

A 2021 reliability analysis found inconsistent scoring between evaluators — meaning two people scored by the same instrument could come out differently depending on who held the pen.

The tool also lacked items for strangulation and suicidal or homicidal ideation — two of the highest lethality indicators in domestic violence research. Gone from the scoring entirely. Until CASCADE.

And it had a documented pattern of over-classifying people into the highest treatment tier. More treatment than the risk warranted. More supervision. More time. More of everything — based on a tool the state now admits was insufficient.

What The State Knew And When

This did not happen overnight.

The problems with DVRNA were identified in a 2020 internal validation review. That review triggered the development of CASCADE. Colorado built a new tool because the old one had documented structural failures — and they knew it.

They trained the first CASCADE cohorts in March and April 2026.

They set August 31, 2027 as the hard deadline for full statewide implementation.

They did not issue re-evaluations for people currently in the system under DVRNA.

The Legislature Was Already Questioning The Metric

While DVRNA was still scoring people, the Colorado General Assembly passed Senate Bill 2024-029, directing the state to develop metrics other than recidivism to measure criminal justice outcomes.

The working group they convened submitted its July 2025 report to four legislative committees. Colorado's own Division of Criminal Justice wrote this, on the record:

"Recidivism does not capture the complexities of an individual's reintegration process, including efforts to obtain stable employment and housing, establish necessary medical care, create positive community connections, improve personal well-being, and adopt positive coping strategies."

The same report named parenthood as a driver of desistance from crime.

DVRNA is a recidivism-based instrument. The legislature questioned the metric. Received a report confirming its limitations. And cases are still being decided under it.

The final report from that working group — due June 30, 2026 — is still not posted. 56 days past its own deadline.

What This Means If You Were Scored

If you were evaluated under DVRNA and your case is still open in Colorado, you are being adjudicated under a tool the state is actively replacing.

You were not told the tool had documented accuracy problems. You were not told it was being replaced. Nobody came back to re-evaluate you under the new standard.

The score followed you. The state moved on.

The Question Nobody Has A Clean Answer To

"The state of Colorado trained its evaluators on a new assessment instrument — CASCADE — because it determined the previous one, DVRNA, was insufficient. My evaluation was conducted under DVRNA.

My case is still open. I have never been re-evaluated under the instrument the state itself determined is more accurate. The mandatory implementation date for the new standard is August 31, 2027. Today is August 25, 2026. The transition is happening right now — and my case is being decided under a framework Colorado is actively walking away from."

No evaluator. No caseworker. No judge. Has a clean answer to that.

Justin Jay Kirscht is a father, 2e advocate, and the author of 2e Decoded on Substack. This piece is adapted from the full documented version, with primary source citations, available at 2e Decoded. August 25, 2026 — Denver, Colorado.